Break even point and required win rate

When you settle on a particular type of binary option and asset to trade on you should work out what % of your trades you need to win to break even. This is called your required win rate. This will give you a benchmark to track your performance against and tell you whether long term profit is possible.

The required win rate all comes down to the payout % on the option you have decided to trade. The calculation is


Stake ÷ (Stake + profit) * 100 = required win % to break even.

For example let’s say you want to stake 100 mBTC per option with a 70% payout. 70% of 100 mBTC is 70 mBTC profit.


100 ÷ (100 + 70) * 100

brackets first 100 + 70 = 170

100 ÷ 170 * 100 = 58.28%

So for 70% payout options you need to win 58.28% of your trades to break even. Let’s see how much this changes if we get a nice high payout % of 85% like we can on FortuneJack (review). In this example we will invest 500 mBTC per option.


500 ÷ (500 + 425) * 100

brackets first 500 + 425 = 925

500 ÷ 925 * 100 = 54.05%

With the higher payout rate we only need to win 54.05% of our options to break even.

What ABC do I need to win XYZ

Let’s say you have a profit target and you want to work out

  • How many options to trade.
  • What required win rate.
  • How much to invest per option.

you need to reach your profit target. To work out 1 of those 3 things you need to know the other 2. In all examples let’s say you want to make 1000 mBTC trading an option that has an 80% payout.

Example 1

You decide to invest 100 mBTC per option and you have a 60% win rate. You want to know how many options you have to trade to win 1000 mBTC.

If your trade wins you win 80 mBTC.
if your trade loses you lose 100 mBTC .
For every 100 options you trade you win 60 and lose 40.


60 * 80 mBTC = 4800 mBTC

40 * 100 mBTC = 4000 mBTC

So overall in 100 trades you are winning


4800 mBTC  – 4000 mBTC = 800 mBTC

800 mBTC per 100 trades = 8 mBTC per trade

You want to win 1000 mBTC.


1000 mBTC ÷ 8 mBTC = 125

therefore you need to trade 125 options to win 1000 mBTC .

Example 2

You decide to trade 500 options for 50 mBTC each. You want to know what win rate you need to make 1000 mBTC .


1000 mBTC ÷ 500 = 2

therefore you need to win 2 mBTC per trade.

If your trade wins you win 40 mBTC.
if your trade loses you lose 50 mBTC.


289 winning trades * 40 mBTC = 11560 mBTC
211 losing trades * -50 mBTC = -10550 mBTC
11560 mBTC – 10550 mBTC = 1010 mBTC
289 ÷ 500 * 100 = 57.8% win rate.

Therefore you need a win rate of 57.8% to win 1000 mBTC.

Example 3

You decide to trade 300 options and you know you have a 63% win rate. You want to know how much you have to invest per option to win 1000 mBTC.


1000 mBTC ÷ 300 + 3.33

therefor you need to win 3.33 mBTC per trade.

With a 63% win rate you know you will win 189 trades and lose 111. That is 78 more wins than loses. Making trades of 25 mBTC will win 20 mBTC if you win and lose 25 mBTC if you lose.


you win
189 * 20 mBTC = 3780 mBTC
you lose
111 * -25 mBTC = 2775 mBTC
3780 mBTC – 2775 mBTC = 1005 mBTC

Therefore you need invest 25 mBTC per option to win 1000 mBTC.

Be champions!

0000

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published.